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本节的基本观点是:复杂性限制了我们对事物的认知和理解;随着复杂性日益增加,政治家及广大决策者做出明智决策的能力确实可能受到影响。亚美尼亚总统阿尔缅·萨尔基相出身理论物理学家,在提出“量子政治”这一说法时表达了上述观点。他阐述了后牛顿物理学的古典世界如何让位于量子世界,前者以线性、可预测,甚至某种程度的确定性为特征,后者具有高度互联性、不确定性和复杂性,并根据观察者所处位置而改变。这种说法让人想起量子物理学对万物运作方式的解释,被认为是“我们对构成物质的粒子的本质及粒子间相互作用力量的最准确描述”。<sup><a id="note10" href="#note10n">[10]</a></sup>新冠疫情的暴发使得量子世界的特点暴露无遗。
<a id="note1n" href="#note1">[1]</a> Mahbubani, Kishore, The Great Convergence: Asia, the West, and the Logic of One World, PublicAffairs, Perseus Books Group, 2013.
<a id="note2n" href="#note2">[2]</a> World Economic Forum, The Global Risks Report 2020, Insight Report, 15th Edition, http://www3.weforum.org/docs/WEF_Global_Risk_Report_2020.pdf.
<a id="note3n" href="#note3">[3]</a> Wharton University of Pennsylvania, Risk Management and Decision Processes Center, “The Ostrich Paradox: Why We Underprepare for Disasters”, Issue Brief, May 2018, https://riskcenter.wharton.upenn.edu/wpcontent/uploads/2019/03/Ostrich-Paradox-issue-brief.pdf.
<a id="note4n" href="#note4">[4]</a> Wagenaar, William A. and Sabato D. Sagaria, “Misperception of exponential growth”, Perception & Psychophysics, vol. 18, 1975, pp. 416–422, https://link.springer.com/article/10.3758/BF03204114.
<a id="note5n" href="#note5">[5]</a> CDC, “2019-2020 U.S. Flu Season: Preliminary Burden Estimates”, https://www.cdc.gov/flu/about/burden/preliminary-in-season-estimates.htm.