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<a id="ch4-back" href="#ch4">[4]</a> Ibid.

<a id="ch5-back" href="#ch5">[5]</a> Conversation with Warren Buffett,August 1994.

<a id="ch6-back" href="#ch6">[6]</a> Outstanding Investor Digest,August I 0,1995,63.

<a id="ch7-back" href="#ch7">[7]</a> Ibid.

<a id="ch8-back" href="#ch8">[8]</a> 《与天为敌:风险探索传奇》中文版已由机械工业出版社出版。

<a id="ch9-back" href="#ch9">[9]</a> Peter L.Bernstein,Against the Gods(New York:John Wiley&amp;Sons,1996),63.

<a id="ch10-back" href="#ch10">[10]</a> Ibid.

<a id="ch11-back" href="#ch11">[11]</a> Ibid.

<a id="ch12-back" href="#ch12">[12]</a> Outstanding Investor Digest,May 5,1995,49.

<a id="ch13-back" href="#ch13">[13]</a> Robert L.Winkler,An Introduction to Bayesian Inference and Decision(New York:Holt,Rinehart&amp;Winston,1972),17.

<a id="ch14-back" href="#ch14">[14]</a> Andrew Kilpatrick,Of Permanent Value:The Story of Warren Buffett(Birmingham,AL:AKPE,1998),800.

<a id="ch15-back" href="#ch15">[15]</a> Outstanding Investor Digest,April18,1990,16.

<a id="ch16-back" href="#ch16">[16]</a> Ibid.

<a id="ch17-back" href="#ch17">[17]</a> Outstanding Investor Digest,June 23,1994,19.

<a id="ch18-back" href="#ch18">[18]</a> Edward O.Thorp,Beat the Dealer:AWinning Strategy for the Game of Twenty-One(New York:Vintage Books,1962).

<a id="ch19-back" href="#ch19">[19]</a> I am indebted to Bill Miller for pointing out thej.L.Kelly growth model.

<a id="ch20-back" href="#ch20">[20]</a> C.E.Shannon."A Mathematical Theory of Communication,"Bell SystemTechnical Journal 27,no.3(July 1948).

<a id="ch21-back" href="#ch21">[21]</a> J.L.KellyJr.,"A New Interpretation of Information Rate,"Bell System TechnicalJournal 35,no.3(July 1956).

<a id="ch22-back" href="#ch22">[22]</a> Outstanding Investor Digest,May 5,1995,57.

<a id="ch23-back" href="#ch23">[23]</a> Andrew Beyer,Picking Winners:A Horse Player's Guide(New York:HoughtonMifflin,1994),178.

<a id="ch24-back" href="#ch24">[24]</a> Outstanding Investor Digest,May 5,1995,58.

<a id="ch25-back" href="#ch25">[25]</a> Benjamin Graham,The Memoirs of the Dean of Wall Street(New York:McGraw-Hill,1996),239.

<a id="ch26-back" href="#ch26">[26]</a> The speech was adapted as an article in the Columbia Business School'spublication Hermes(Fall 1984),with the same title.The remarks directlyquoted here are from that article.

<a id="ch27-back" href="#ch27">[27]</a> Warren Buffett."The Superinvestors of Graham-and-Doddsville."Hermes,Fall1984.The superinvestors Buffett presented in the article included Walter Schloss.who worked at Graham-Newman Corporation in the mid-1950s,along with Buffett;Tom Knapp,another Graham-Newman alumnus,who later formed Tweedy,Browne Partners with Ed Anderson,also a Graham follower;Bill Ruane,a former Graham student who went on to establish the SequoiaFund with Rick Cuniff;Buffett's #ch28"&gt;[28] Berkshire Hathaway Annual Report,1991,15.

<a id="ch29-back" href="#ch29">[29]</a> Jess H.Chua and Richard S.Woodward,'J.M.Keynes's InvestmentPerformance:A Note,"Journal of Finance 38,no.1(March 1983).

<a id="ch30-back" href="#ch30">[30]</a> Ibid.

<a id="ch31-back" href="#ch31">[31]</a> Ibid.

<a id="ch32-back" href="#ch32">[32]</a> Buffett,"Superinvestors."

<a id="ch33-back" href="#ch33">[33]</a> Ibid.

<a id="ch34-back" href="#ch34">[34]</a> Ibid.

<a id="ch35-back" href="#ch35">[35]</a> Sequoia Fund Annual Report,1996.

<a id="ch36-back" href="#ch36">[36]</a> Solveigjansson,"GEICO Sticks to Its Last,"Institutionallnvestor,July 1986,130.

<a id="ch37-back" href="#ch37">[37]</a> Berkshire Hathaway Annual Report,1986,15.

<a id="ch38-back" href="#ch38">[38]</a> Berkshire Hathaway Annual Report,1995,10.

<a id="ch39-back" href="#ch39">[39]</a> 《巴菲特的投资组合》中文版已由机械工业出版社出版。

<a id="ch40-back" href="#ch40">[40]</a> The research described here was conducted with Joan Lamm-Tennant,PhD,at Villanova University.

<a id="ch41-back" href="#ch41">[41]</a> KJ.Martijn Cremers and Antti Petajisto,"How Active Is Your Fund Manager?A New Measure That Predicts Performance,"Yale ICF Working Paper No.06-14,March 31,2009.

<a id="ch42-back" href="#ch42">[42]</a> "Active Funds Come out of the Closet,"Barron's,November17,2012.

<a id="ch43-back" href="#ch43">[43]</a> Buffett,"Superinvestors."

<a id="ch44-back" href="#ch44">[44]</a> Joseph Nocera,"Who's Got the Answers?,"Fortune,November 24,1997,329.

<a id="ch45-back" href="#ch45">[45]</a> Ibid.

<a id="ch46-back" href="#ch46">[46]</a> V Eugene Shahan,"Are Short-Term Performance and Value Investing Mutuallv Exclusive?."Hermes,Spring1986.

<a id="ch47-back" href="#ch47">[47]</a> Sequoia Fund,Quarterly Report,March 31,1996.

<a id="ch48-back" href="#ch48">[48]</a> A Warren Buffett widely quoted remark.

<a id="ch49-back" href="#ch49">[49]</a> Berkshire Hathaway Annual Report,1987,14.

<a id="ch50-back" href="#ch50">[50]</a> Ibid.

<a id="ch51-back" href="#ch51">[51]</a> Ibid.

<a id="ch52-back" href="#ch52">[52]</a> Berkshire Hathaway Annual Report,1981,39.

<a id="ch53-back" href="#ch53">[53]</a> Benjamin Graham and David Dodd..Security Analysis 3rd ed.(New York:McGraw-Hill,1951).

<a id="ch54-back" href="#ch54">[54]</a> Berkshire Hathaway Annual Report,1987,15.

<a id="ch55-back" href="#ch55">[55]</a> Berkshire Hathaway Annual Report,1991,8.

<a id="ch56-back" href="#ch56">[56]</a> Ibid.

<a id="ch57-back" href="#ch57">[57]</a> Outstanding Investor Digest,August 10,1995,lO.

<a id="ch58-back" href="#ch58">[58]</a> Berkshire Hathaway Annual Report,1991.15.

<a id="ch59-back" href="#ch59">[59]</a> Berkshire Hathaway Annual Report,1996.

<a id="ch60-back" href="#ch60">[60]</a> RobertJeffrey and Robert Arnott,"Is Your Alpha Big Enough to Cover ItsTaxes?,"Journal of Portfolio Management,Spring 1993.

<a id="ch61-back" href="#ch61">[61]</a> Ibid.

<a id="ch62-back" href="#ch62">[62]</a> Brett Duval Fromson,"Are These the New Warren Buffetts?,"Fortune,October30,1989,from Carol Loomis,Tap Dancing to Work:Warren Buffett on PracticallyEverything,1966-2012(New York:Time Inc.,2012),101.

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